Showing posts with label Philosophy-Epistemology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philosophy-Epistemology. Show all posts

Monday, September 29, 2025

Review of An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding by David Hume

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (12/06/2025)


Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“Man is a reasonable being; and as such, receives from science his proper food and nourishment: But so narrow are the bounds of human understanding, that little satisfaction can be hoped for in this particular, either from the extent of security or his acquisitions.  Man is a sociable, no less than a reasonable being: But neither can he always enjoy company agreeable and amusing, or preserve the proper relish for them.  Man is also an active being; and from that disposition, as well as from the various necessities of human life, must submit to business and occupation: But the mind requires some relaxation, and cannot always support its bent to care and industry.” – David Hume, Section I: Of the Different Species of Philosophy, Page 8


“Nothing is more free than the imagination of man; and though it cannot exceed that original stock of ideas furnished by the internal and external senses, it has unlimited power of mixing, compounding, separating, and dividing these ideas, in all the varieties of fiction and vision.  It can feign a train of events, with all the appearance of reality, ascribe to them a particular time and place, conceive them as existent, and paint them out to itself with every circumstance, that belongs to any historical fact, which it believes with the greatest certainty.” – David Hume, Section V: Sceptical Solution of these Doubts, Page 40


“The great advantage of the mathematical sciences above the moral consists in this, that the ideas of the former, being sensible, are always clear and determinate, the smallest distinction between them is immediately perceptible, and the same terms are still expressive of the same ideas, without ambiguity or variation.  An oval is never mistaken for a circle, nor an hyperbola for an ellipsis.  The isosceles and scalenum are distinguished by boundaries more exact than vice and virtue, right and wrong.” – David Hume, Section VII: Of the Idea of Necessary Connexion, Page 53


Review

Is This An Overview?

Methods of science develop human society, but people are bound to narrow understandings.  People have their biases, and nature limits self-control.  The mind wants activity, but also moments of relaxation.  People can imagine vast fictions and believe them to be reality.  While mathematical sciences can form relations which never change, moral sciences maintain ambiguity.  Logic is based on operations of the mind, for abstract ideas do not exist in nature.  Experience teaches the cause and effect between variables.  That the same causes have the same effects.  Chance is dependent on ignorance of causes for events.  Science can overcome controversy through experimentation, through trust in past experiences.   

 

Caveats?

This book can be difficult to read due to antediluvian examples and explanations.  Various ideas presented have been updated.  Some ideas still hold, others have been proven false.  


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What is science to people?
•How active is a person?
•Where is logic found?
•What is induction? 
•What effect do passions have on the mind?
•What is the difference between fiction and belief? 
•What are the limits to imagination? 
•What is chance and probability?
•What is the difference between mathematical and moral sciences?
•How much self-command do people have?
•What is the source of controversy? 
•What is the effect of miracles? 


Book Details
Publisher:               Open Road Integrated Media
Edition ISBN:         9781504063760
Pages to read:          134
Publication:             2020
1st Edition:              1748
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    1
Content          2
Overall          1






Sunday, April 27, 2025

Review of Understanding Knowledge by Michael Huemer

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (07/12/2025)
Intriguing Connections = 1) The Style of Math, 2) What Makes Science A Science?,


Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“Trying to produce a system of knowledge about some subject matter by reasoning from first principles, without relying on judgments about cases, is like trying to design a new airplane based on theoretical physics, without knowing details about any actual airplanes. Your system is almost certainly going to fail in some major way.  If it’s a philosophical system, though, there’s a good chance that you won’t recognize that it failed, because there won’t be any decisive empirical test as there is in the case of an airplane, so when someone points out the problems with your theory, you can come up with rationalizations to keep holding on to it. That has happened to many, perhaps the vast majority of, philosophers throughout history.” – Michael Huemer, Chapter 7: Taxonomy and Paradigms of Knowledge, Page 127 


“But observation never gives us normative information. Observation only tells us what is, not what ought to be. You can’t see, hear, taste, touch, or smell justification. Normative propositions also can’t be inferred from descriptive information alone—you can’t figure out what ought to be solely on the basis of what is. Therefore, empiricism itself cannot be justified on the basis of observation.” – Michael Huemer, Chapter 10: Puer Reason, Page 171

 

“Disagreement poses a practical problem for a few reasons. It directly causes social tension; it causes partisans of different views to waste resources trying to defeat each other; and, perhaps most importantly, it likely results in our making bad decisions since we do not know what the right decisions are. Or perhaps more precisely, the unreliability of our ways of forming beliefs causes disagreement and also causes bad decisions. Unfortunately, it is precisely on certain kinds of practical questions (politics and morality) that we are most likely to disagree.” – Michael Huemer, Chapter 17: Irrationality, Page 324


Review

Is This An Overview?

Epistemology are the methods by which beliefs are justified, the underlying thinking behind decision making.  All statements contain implied knowledge claims, with epistemology the study of that knowledge.  Knowledge that needs to be justified by rational beliefs, formed by a probabilistic account of evidence.  Which requires the individual to want to pursue truth and avoid errors.  There are many views of what is knowledge, and what are justified beliefs, but each has their own logical limitations. 

 

Belief systems can be internally coherent, but not externally valid.  Theoretic knowledge of principles needs to be tested by experience to be useful, as there can be missed information within the theoretic knowledge.  Most knowledge is obtained through other people’s testimonies.  Accumulated information that would be potentially impossible for anyone to verify all the knowledge in their lifetime.  Testimonies are a crucial source of knowledge, but cannot be trusted as they can confirm biases rather than understand reality.  Even knowledge that is obtained and used by the individual requires cognitive faculties, but the faculties have their own limitations. 

 

Caveats?

This book is a guide to epistemology topics and ideas, which uses a lot of jargon.  A reference book for those taking a course in epistemology, or for professional epistemologists. 

 

The methodology of the book is not tailored to facilitate improving decision making.  Rather the book is meant to find the logical limitations to claims.  Epistemology is supposed to be a study of knowledge, but as the author notes, epistemologists do not have an accepted and working definition of knowledge, as each attempted definition has logical limitations.  Neither knowledge nor any obtained belief can be proven, not even if someone is not a brain in a vat.   


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What is epistemology? 
•What is a proposition?
•Is a proposition a belief?  
•What are the characteristics of an argument?  
•What is knowledge? 
•What are justifications?
•What is the Gettier’s refutation?
•What is reliabilism? 
•Should people define their terms?
•What are the structures of knowledge? 
•What coherence theory of justification? 
•What is skepticism?  What are the types of skepticism? 
•What is foundationalism? 
•What is meta-knowledge? 
•How does cognitive faculties effect knowledge? 
•What is inferential knowledge? 
•What is empirical knowledge?
•What is a priori knowledge? 
•What happens to failed philosophical knowledge? 
•What do observations provide? 
•What is Bayesian analysis? 
•What is “Nullius in verba”?
•What is the effect of disagreement? 

Book Details
Publisher:               Amazon
Edition ISBN:         B0C5VBNCXW
Pages to read:          386
Publication:             2023
1st Edition:              2023
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    2
Content          2
Overall          1






Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Review of Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters by Steven Pinker

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (09/21/2024)
Intriguing Connections = 1) The Style of Math, 2) How To Have A Conversation?


Watch Short Review


Excerpts

“Instead of feeling any need to persuade, people who are certain they are correct can impose their beliefs by force.  In theocracies and autocracies, authorities censor, imprison, exile, or burn those with the wrong opinions.  In democracies the force is less brutish, but people still find means to impose a belief rather than argue for it.  Modern universities – oddly enough, given that their mission is to evaluate ideas – have been at the forefront of finding ways to suppress opinions, including disinviting and drowning out speakers, removing controversial teachers from the classroom, revoking offers of jobs and support, expunging contentious articles from archives, and classifying differences of opinion as punishable harassment and discrimination.” – Steven Pinker, Chapter 2: Rationality and Irrationality, Page 50-51

“And another reason not to blow off persuasion is that you will have left those who disagree with you no choice but to join the game you are playing and counter you with force rather than argument.  They may be stronger than you, if not now then at some time in the future.  At that point, when you are the one who is canceled, it will be too late to claim that your views should be taken seriously because of their merits.” – Steven Pinker, Chapter 2: Rationality and Irrationality, Page 51

“And that is the power of reason: it can reason about itself.  When something appears mad, we can look for a method to the madness.  When a future self might act irrationally, a present self can outsmart it.  When a rational argument slips into fallacy or sophistry, an even more rational argument exposes it.  And if you disagree – if you think there is a flaw in this argument – it’s reason that allows you to do so.” – Steven Pinker, Chapter 2: Rationality and Irrationality, Page 74


Review

Is This An Overview?

Using rational reasoning skills, humans have been able to achieve material and scientific progress.   Rationality is composed of cognitive tools that people use to understand a situation, to find potential solutions to a problem.  Rationality is often found in groups, as each individual reciprocates in finding each other’s fallacies.  Reason can reason about reason, which enables people to disagree and find alternative solutions.  There are situations in which people can find rational reasons to behave irrationally, situations in which there is strategic value in ignorance.  People use reasoning skills when they argue, persuade, evaluate, accept, or reject an argument instead of threatening and coercing each other. 

Various social and institutional systems used force to shape others’ beliefs rather than use persuasion.  The acceptable methods of forcing beliefs on others have changed, but even institutions that are meant to evaluate ideas, find ways to suppress divergent views.  The problem of using force, is that force can leave the opposition with no alternative other than to reciprocate with force.  Relative power can shift to the opposition who will reciprocate the lack of willingness to be heard on merits. 

 

Caveats?

The book expresses rationality through various methods such as formal logic, game theory, and probability.  Although the decision theory and mathematics are provided in an introductory form, a reader who has not yet learned the ideas might need to apply more effort to understand them such as by researching for more details and applications.  The way some parts are written can contradict values in other parts, such as highlighting individual failures of rationality even though the group process of finding rationality is understood, and sharing causes to biases but providing various examples that enable the biases to occur.   


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What is the Monty Hall dilemma?
•What is the conjunction rule of probability? 
•What is the reality mindset and the mythology mindset? 
•Is rationality an individual process or a communal process? 
•How do the San use reason to hunt? 
•What is rationality? 
•What does the visual system inform you of?  
•What is the difference between reason and logic? 
•Should people choose to persuade or coerce?
•How do universities influence the spread of ideas?
•What is the marshmallow dilemma? 
•Is it better to delay gratification or seek to gratify oneself immediately?
•What is the game of chicken? 
•What is the Madman Theory?
•What are the valid inferences of formal logic? 
•What information does logic have? 
•What are different kinds of logical fallacies? 
•What puts a category together? 
•What are the odds of a financial market analysist making correct predictions over many years? 
•What is a rational choice? 
•What is a Bayesian analysis? 
•What are null results?  How are they effected by the p-value? 
•What is game theory?
•What is the prisoner’s dilemma? 

Book Details
Publisher:               Penguin Books [Penguin Random House]
Edition ISBN:        9780525562009
Pages to read:          274
Publication:             2022
1st Edition:              2021
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    5
Content          5
Overall          5






Thursday, February 29, 2024

Review of Starry Messenger: Cosmic Perspectives on Civilization by Neil deGrasse Tyson

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (10/19/2024)
Intriguing Connections = 1) What Makes Science A Science?




Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“Objective truths don’t come from any seated authority, nor from any single research paper.  The press, in an attempt to break a story, may mislead the public’s awareness of how science works by headlining a just-published scientific paper as the truth, perhaps also touting the academic pedigrees of the authors.  When drawn from the frontier of thought, the truth still churns.  Research can wander until experiments converge in one direction or another – or in no direction, a warning flag of no phenomenon at all.  These crucial checks and balances commonly take years, which hardly ever counts as “breaking news.”” – Neil deGrasse Tyson, Chapter One: Truth & Beauty, Page 8

“With systems in place to disseminate thought, such as scientific conferences, peer-reviewed journals, and patent filings, every next generation can use discoveries of the previous generation as fresh starting points.  No reinventing the wheel.  No wasted efforts.  This blunt and obvious fact carries profound consequences.  It means knowledge grows exponentially, not linearly, rendering our brains hopeless in our attempts to predict the future based on the past.” – Neil deGrasse Tyson, Chapter Two: Exploration & Discovery, Page 29

“Hidden bias can cause a persistent urge to see all that agrees with you and ignore all that does not, even when countervailing examples abound.  Among the many categories of how to fool oneself, the more pernicious is confirmation bias: you remember the hits and forget the misses.  It affects us all, at one level or another.  The antidote?  Dispassionate rational analysis.” – Neil deGrasse Tyson, Chapter Four: Conflict & Resolution, Page 80


Review

Is This An Overview?

People have different experiences, values, and priorities.  Differences that cause division and conflict.  With tribes formed by those who agree and share the same values.  A method to overcome the division and conflict would be to change how to think about the ideas.  To think about the ideas from above, a cosmic perspective.  Science and rational thinking provides that perspective.  Many disagreements disappear when data about the ideas is introduced.  Scientists are after the data, rather than opinions.

While scientific tools overcome human sensory frailties, scientists are taught to think rationally rather than emotionally.  Truth comes from repeated and consistent results, not based on authority nor on a single research paper.  Changing how ideas are interpreted based on tests and experiments.  Knowledge grows exponentially as previous research is used to develop new understanding.  While science seeks to change behavior through voluntary consensus, behavior on social media tends to coerce agreement.   

 

Caveats?

This book is on applications of science across diverse topics.  Various topics that include those that are socially sensitive.  Some topics have been developed further by specialists within the topics, who have different interpretations of the claims. 

There is an idealism about science and scientists.  There is a recognition that scientists can corrupt research, but that the community can self-regulate.  The problem in thinking of the community as an ideal, can prevent scientists from considering how science can be corrupted, which exacerbates the corruption.  Ideally, scientists remove their emotions from their claims, but emotions provide logic with value.  Scientists are people, who have emotions.  Emotions that influence how data is interpreted.  The want to remove emotions, does not prevent emotions, but rather hides them.  Creating the hidden biases that the author recognizes corrupt science.

The subtitle is a bit deceptive.  The cosmic reference is not about astrophysics, but about science.  Science is the cosmic perspective.  There are some references on astrophysics, but that is not the purpose of this book. 

 


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•Why are there disagreements?
•How to overcome disagreements? 
•What is the cosmic perspective?
•What do scientists want?
•What is the effect of scientific tools?
•What to do about emotions?
•How to get to truth?
•How does knowledge grow?
•How does science change behavior?
•How does social media change behavior?   
•How not to fool oneself?
•What can limit the effectiveness of science? 
•What is pre-consensus?
•What is the effect of hidden biases?
•What is confirmation bias?
•What defines something as beautiful or ugly? 
•What are the features of a democracy? 
•What are labels? 
•Who did evolution reward? 
•How do monetary lotteries effect society? 
•How to understand risk and reward? 
•How do emotions change risk evaluation? 
•What should people eat? 
•What is speciesism? 
•What do animals think of humans? 
•What is the triple point of water? 
•How to tell the difference between the sexes?
•What determines skin color? 
•How do people define themselves based on region?
•How does canceling people effect society? 
•How do debate tournaments function?
•Is the law searching for justice? 
•Can eyewitness testimonies be trusted? 
•What is the purpose of scientific tools? 
•How many miscarriages are there? 
•What defines a disability? 
•How smart are animals?
•Do you want to live forever? 

Book Details
Edition:                   First Holt Paperbacks Edition
Publisher:               Holt Paperbacks [Macmillan Publishing Group]
Edition ISBN:         9781250861511
Pages to read:          218
Publication:             2024
1st Edition:              2022
Format:                    Paperback 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    5
Content          4
Overall          5






Sunday, February 4, 2024

Review of The Constitution of Knowledge: A Defense of Truth by Jonathan Rauch

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (04/27/2024)
Intriguing Connections = 1) The Persecuted and The Persecutors, 2) War for Your Attention


Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“Humans are social animals.  What matters most from an evolutionary perspective is not that a person forms beliefs which are true; it is that she forms beliefs which lead to social success.  In effect, what matters most is not what I believe or what you believe but what we believe.” – Jonathan Rauch, Chapter 2: The State of Nature: Tribal Truth, Page 42

“The answer is: of course scientists are biased.  But that premise does not justify the conclusion that liberal science as a whole is biased.  Although members of the reality-based community may be as blind to their own errors and biases as anybody else, they are not blind to the errors and biases of those with whom they disagree.  What matters is not that individuals in the community be unbiased but that they have different biases, so that I see your mistakes and you see mine.” – Jonathan Rauch, Chapter 3: Booting Reality: The Rise of Networked knowledge, Page 86

“Both criticism and coercive conformity take the form of people arguing about something, but they belong to very different worlds.  Criticism expresses arguments or evidence with the goal of influencing opinion through rational persuasion.  It belongs to the realm of truth-seeking.  Canceling belongs to the realm of propaganda warfare: like other forms of information warfare, it seeks to organize and manipulate a social or media environment to demoralize, deplatform, isolate, or intimidate an adversary.  Like disinformation and trolling, its interest is not in discovering knowledge but in shaping the information battlefield.” – Jonathan Rauch, Chapter 7: Canceling: Despotism of the Few, Page 230

Review

Is This An Overview?

Knowledge is a communal process, a journey, rather than a destination.  To find each other’s errors, then correct them.  To discard ideas that have been disconfirmed.  The constitution of knowledge is meant to provide guidance on how to handle differences of perspectives.  Viewpoint diversity is needed, with each claim going through challenges and accommodation to enable a social convergence.  To hear different viewpoints, requires tolerance of a contentious intellectual culture.  Making claims and validating ideas without personal attacks, and without anyone having a final say.  Not even personal authority can validate claims, as everyone is fallible.  The constitution of knowledge creates an epistemic environment where people are protected, but their ideas are not.

While the constitution of knowledge is meant to enable society to have better information, society can face an epistemic crisis in which the quality and sources of information have been degraded.  As people are not able to tell the difference between truth and falsehood.  Some ways that information can be degraded is through ideological tribalism, trolling, and canceling.  An epistemic crisis comes about when people attack the informational environment, not just people or facts.

Humans are social animals that depend not on forming true beliefs, but beliefs that lead to social success.  What matters is what the group believes.  As people want to belong to a tribe, there is a willingness to purposefully interpret information incorrectly, to protect the tribe.  Internet trolls confuse and disrupt, while cancelers coerce.  Rather than seek to improve the knowledge base, trolls weaponize outrage to capture attention which demobilizes people through demoralization.  Cancelers signal tribal support, by expressing public outrage that is meant to isolate and intimidate the opposition rather than provide fair criticism.  Through attacks on epistemic sources, viewpoint diversity has become endangered.

 

What Is Knowledge And The Effect Biases?

Certainty might be sought after, but certainty is not compatible with knowledge.  Alternatively there is fallibilism, that any belief is to be discarded when there is experience against them.  With fallibilism, uncertainty is ubiquitous but obtaining knowledge is still possible.  Knowledge is always provisional.  Fallibilist search for errors, as disconfirmation can be found.  What remains by removing the errors, is the best available knowledge.

It is through the communal process of error correction that each scientist’s biases can be limited.  Scientists are biased, and they might not recognize their own biases, but they can spot other people’s biases.  By having different biases, each scientist can see the mistakes of the others. 

 

What Is The Constitution Of Knowledge?

The constitution of knowledge is meant to compel and organize social negotiation.  To accept challenges to claims, and seek to compromise or accommodate.  To be resilient and innovate without the system breaking down.  Competition with belief systems provides a need to compromise them. 

Constitution of knowledge does not require people to agree on facts.  It requires people with different views towards social convergence.  Real intellectual pluralism and viewpoint diversity need to be actively sought for.  Agreement on ideas is not viewpoint diversity. 

Reality-based (error-seeking) communities are accountable to each other, not a higher authority.  There is a separation between the idea and the person.  Ideas can be attacked, but not the character of the person. 

The constitution of knowledge has commitments to fallibilism, objectivity, exclusivity, disconfirmation, and accountability.  There is also an internal value of epistemic conscience of not selecting favorable data or hiding unfavorable data.  Fallibilism is about accepting being wrong.  Objectivity is about the empirical rule, that people are interchangeable.  Exclusivity is about using the constitutions rules for objectivity.  Disconfirmation is needed to challenge claims rather than just confirm already accepted claims.  Accountability is about making mistakes acceptable, not to punish them too harshly.

 

How Tribal identity Effects Intelligence And Intelligence Effects Tribal Identity?

People defer to their tribes for beliefs and attitudes.  Groups establish a shared perception of reality.  People are tribal and change their belief system to the tribe’s views, to prevent a loss of social reputation and group identity.  Evolutionary habituated to defend the group’s ideas, to prevent alienation from the group.  When the group’s values are threatened, people interpret evidence incorrectly to protect the group.

Reason does not override group identity.  Group solidarity creates ideological conflict.  Creating epistemic tribalism.  People publicly conform to information they privately know is false.  Totalitarian regimes require everyone to pretend to believe ideas, that they know privately to be false.  Ideological tribes believe that only one side can prevail, requiring the destruction of the other side’s political force.

With neutral data that is not part of an ideological background, a person can interpret data well.  But when data is shown to be about a passionate topic attached to an ideological background, the person interprets the data based on ideological background.  Emotionally charged issues enable the exploitation and manipulation of people.  Although emotions rationalize political loyalties, people claim that policy views were formed through reason. 

More intelligent people were better able to interpret neutral data, but had more biased interpretations for the passionate topics.  Intelligence enables people to better rationalize false beliefs.  Intelligence does not necessarily make people open-minded, or self-critical thinking.  Motivated reasoning weaponized intelligence against reality.  Seeing others as a wrong, while not seeing the individual as biased. 

 

How Epistemic Crisis Are Formed?

Journalists are meant to seek accuracy, obtain a comment from the target, consider varied viewpoints, among other factors to avoid a conflict of interest.  There are times when the news are wrong and therefore retract the entries.  Errors are meant to signal integrity, but those attacking information see error correction as proof of corruption.

Digital media reverses the social incentives of the reality-based community.  Rather than slowing down information flow by reviewing and testing before sharing, digital media favors instantaneity and impulsivity.  Anonymity makes people lose accountability and become sociopathic.  Misinformation tends to be more inflammatory and shared then boring reality.  Digital media promotes ad hominem attacks rather than marginalizes them.  Digital media attacks the person rather than the idea. 

For internet trolls, the point is capturing attention, rather than the quality of the content.  Troll epistemology is destructive.  It does not create knowledge, trust, or settle disagreements.  What troll epistemology does is reduce the information environment of reality-based communities.  Propaganda creates the condition in which people cannot tell the difference between truth and falsehood, or even methods of distinguishing between them.  Demoralization is a source of political power, as it demobilizes people.  Demotivating people to feel helpless, that they cannot change anything, that there is no alternative to the totalitarian regime.

Cancelers do not even read the content that they are canceling.  What canceling is about is signaling support for their group rather than any targeted idea or person.  Cancel campaigns are meant to isolate, intimidate, and demoralize rather than provide fair criticism.  While criticism wants to influence through rational persuasion.  Canceling is propaganda warfare that shapes the informational battlefield against knowledge.

Emotional safetyism is problematic as it prevents having conversations about ideas that makes people feel unsafe.  Turing all experiences into threats.  Creates conflict through perpetual anger.  While reality-based community rewards challenging claims, safety-based community rewards emotional demonstrations that hinder challengers.  Rather than preventing harmful ideas, they enabling harmful ideas.  Enabling a censorship of every idea and person.  Creating conditions for self-censorship through norm police, has the consequence of building resentment that becomes expressed by voting for a demagogue. 

 

Caveats?

There is an idealism about science, about error correcting systems.  As error correcting is a community function, there is a conflict between the ideal outcomes and group dynamics.  The referenced tribal biases, and weaponizing intelligence against reality.  The focus is on the ideal outcomes, the benefits of error correcting, while not referencing the potential consequences of error correcting.  Skepticism about information is needed for error correcting, but skepticism can be misused.  Troll epistemic attacks leverage uncertainty and turn it against the community.  Creating the referenced epistemic crisis of not knowing what information to trust.

The author’s claims about tribal biases, causing people to confirm ideas favorable to the tribe while disregard ideas unfavorable to the tribe.  Tribal biases effect the author as well.  The author is a journalist, and in this book fought for journalistic integrity.  The author and many journalists might have integrity, but not every journalist.  The author defends news making retractions after an error, and how journalists are fact based.  The problem is that published news tend to be viewed way more than the retractions, therefore the errors are not actually corrected for the public.  Journalists might be fact based, but they can deliver some facts while avoiding other facts which changes how the information is interpretated. 

The author blames social media with quick spread of information, and misinformation.  Being quick to spread means not being able to check and validate the information as much as the slower news mediums.  The problem is that the slower news are not ideal either. 

In part, the author makes the case that personal authority is antagonistic to knowledge development.  But then the author wants professionalism and institutionalism which enable an authority, even as they are described as being without.  Disapproves of amateurs, but that is contradictory to the claims of error correcting.  People start as amateurs and then improve themselves through error correcting.  


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What is the constitution of knowledge?
•What is knowledge?
•What can and cannot validate claims?
•What is an epistemic crisis?
•What is the epistemic tragedy of the commons? 
•How does tribalism effect the interpretation of information?
•How do ideological tribes deal with dissent? 
•Do people interpret dispassionate and passionate topics the same way?
•How does motivated reasoning effect how intelligence people interpret data?
•What do internet trolls do?
•What do cancelers do?
•How to tell the difference between being cancelled and criticized? 
•What is fallibilism?
•How does emotional safetyism effect society? 
•What is a reality-based community?
•What does viewpoint diversity mean?
•What effect does digital media have on information?
•What kind of community is Wikipedia?
•How would someone behave if they had a ring that made them invisible? 
•What is sociopathy?  
•How is the Constitution of The Unites States related to the Constitution of Knowledge? 
•Who should be allowed to speak and be heard? 
•What does it take to change someone mind? 
•What is liberal science?  How is liberal science different than science? 
•How can scientists persist with making bad claims/ideas? 

Book Details
Publisher:                The Brookings Institution [Brookings Institution Press]
Edition ISBN:          9780815738879
Pages to read:          266
Publication:             2021
1st Edition:              2021
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    4
Content          4
Overall          4






Friday, January 19, 2024

Review of Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth by Stuart Ritchie

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (04/13/2024)



Watch Short Review


Excerpts

“Science’s social nature does come with weaknesses, however.  Because scientists focus so much on trying to persuade their peers, which is the way they get those studies through peer review and onward to publication, it’s all too easy for them to disregard the real object of science: getting us close to the truth.  And because scientists are human beings, the ways that they try to persuade each other aren’t always fully rational or objective.  If we don’t take great care, our scientific process can become permeated by very human flaws.” – Stuart Ritchie, Chapter 1: How Science Works, Page 20

“The irony is palpable.  Science, as we’ve discussed, is considered the closest we can come to objectivity: a process that can overcome individual biases by subjecting everyone’s work to review and security.  But by focusing too much on this ideal of science as an infallible, impartial method, we forget that in practice, biases appear at every stage of the process: reading previous work, setting up a study, collecting the data, analyzing the results and choosing whether or not to publish.  Our tendency to overlook these biases turns the scientific literature, which should be an accurate summary of all the knowledge we’ve gained, into a very human amalgam of truth and wishful thinking.” – Stuart Ritchie, Chapter 4: Bias, Page 84

“The system of science is now set up to reward those who engage in underhand methods.  If the more trustworthy researchers – those who are in it for the science, rather than status, money, or other non-scientific goals – can’t compete in this system, they’ll be more likely to drop out of the world of academia and get another job elsewhere.  At the very least, they’ll be less competitive for the top jobs.  Meaning that as well as pushing everyone towards unreliable research practices, the system selects against researchers who have strong convictions about getting it right, filling their places instead with those who are happier to bend the rules.” – Stuart Ritchie, Chapter 7: Perverse Incentives, Page 188


Review

Is This An Overview?

Science is a collaborative effort in error correcting information and improving on the knowledge that is available.  As a collaborative effort, as a social field, the research needs to be shared and people convinced.  Scientists are humans themselves, who have human biases.  Scientists choose how to approach their research, they choose how to interpret their research and competing research, choose whether to publish or not, and choose how to persuade others.  Each choice contains biases that can and has led to the spread of misinformation. 

Scientists have been trusted, and are trusting themselves, but the system has enabled those who can exploit the system of science to wield power.  The scientific community has perverse incentives as those who are untrustworthy are more likely to be promoted for they are willing to compromise the research process, than the trustworthy who seek to improve the knowledge base.  Incentives that reduce the reliability of research. 

Research is shared through a publication, but what is wanted for publishing is not necessarily what is needed to be published.  What often gets published are the exciting results, exaggerated, misleading, and often wrong.  The research that challenges or replicates other research are not welcome in publishing, even though they are needed to provide the limitations and legitimacy for the claims.  Not publishing seemingly unimportant research, distorts the scientific record and enables harmful outcomes.  There are costs to time, effort, and money when using and providing research that is uninformative.

The practice of science has been corrupted.  Rather than error correcting, science enables misinformation to spread.  Science needs to change how it is practiced to enable trust in the community.  This book provides guidance on how science has been exploited, and methods to improve the practice of science.

 

Is Science An Ideal Field?

Science depends on a communal process to find errors and faults to determine whether claims are reliable and important.  Being a communal process, requires persuading peers.  But by focusing too much on persuading peers, scientists lose track of the purpose of science which is to get closer to truth.  Persuading peers can take on various human biases that reduce the validity of the scientific process. 

Skepticism is supposed to be the basic norm of science, but has enabled incompetence, delusion, lies, and self-deception.  The very ideal that scientists hold about science, that of an error correcting system, has given space to research done with human biases while claiming to be objective and unbiased. 

 

Which Research Is Published?

Scientific studies need to be replicated to prove that the results did not come by chance, fraud, or equipment error.  Replication is meant to prevent false findings, bad experiments, and inappropriate data.  But replication is not taken seriously, and studies are not often replicated.  Claims are accepted without checking for replication.  There are barely any attempts to replicate prior results.  Creating a replication crisis, in various fields.  When replication is attempted, many results fail to replicate.  Various research results are used to make policy and health choices that have immediate negative consequences when the results have not been replicated.

News and journals focus on the new and exciting research, which tend to be primarily positive results with a few null results.  Positive results are those in which discoveries are made, while null results are those in which no discovery is made.  Repeat studies are usually rejected from publications, even if they show a different or contradictory result than the original.  Scientist choose to publish results when they have positive research while not publishing null results.  As positive, flashy, novel, newsworthy results are rewarded much more, scientist are incentivized to produce those results, and convince others that the research has the wanted attributes.  Creating a publication bias.  By failing to publish null results, there is an exaggerated importance of effects that create misleading beliefs.  Publication bias distorts the information that is used to make decisions, leading to making decisions based on partial information.  Decisions that are liable to create problems. 

To get hired and promoted, scientists need published papers with appropriate journals.  Universities are ranked by the papers they produce, which results in a publish or perish mentality.  As scientists have limited time to publish papers along with the rest of their responsibilities, the scientific standards become bypassed.  Quantity matters more than quality.  Scientists can split their research into many papers, providing an artificially better CV.  Without knowing the content of the papers, readers of one or few can think there is more evidence for results than there actually is.  Low citation count can be an underappreciated work, but scientists are willing to publish useless works to secure jobs and grants rather than advance science. 

Hype can be very harmful in science.  Many press releases give recommendations to change behavior based on results that the research could not support.  Press releases are important because journalists are time-pressed and therefore closely copy the language of the press release.  This is known as churnalism.  The problem with hyped science is that while the hyped research gets a lot of attention, the refutations are barely able to catch up.  The scientific system incentivizes the lack of caution, restraint, and skepticism.

Peer review is enough to prevent flawed ideas from being published.  Peer-review researchers can prevent alternative conclusions from being published.  The h-index ranks citations based on number of studies, but this measure can be corrupted.  Reviewers created conditions to make sure that papers they published listed the reviewer’s papers.  Researchers have even created a citation cartel with editors collaborating with others for citations. 

There are even problems with reproducibility.  Results do not reproduce using the same data.  Often because the method of reporting was not clear enough, or steps were left out of the report. 

Papers that have been proved to be wrong are retracted.  They remain in the literature with a retracted mark indicating that the paper is no longer considered legitimate. 

 

How Can Science Go Wrong?

Not even highly respected scientific institutions are exempt from protecting their reputation by protecting the activities of fraudsters.  Fraud comes about by exploiting trust.  There will always be those who want fame and success above other concerns.  Fraud does disproportionate damage to science because it takes time to investigate the findings, which takes researchers away from their own research.  Fraud also wastes money through theft, people spending money trying to obtain results that were never real, and researches waste their funds trying to replicate fraudulent research.  Fraud damages the reputation of scientists. 

Although relatively few papers are retracted, for various reasons that include fraud.  Anonymous surveys asking scientists if they committed fraud results in a relatively large portion of scientists admitting to fraud.  Worse, as the portion of fraud increased when asked about known other researchers committing fraud.  The actual numbers are higher, because not everyone would be willing to admit to fraud even anonymously. 

Researchers can put in fake numbers into their papers to make their paper appear more attractive than it actually is.  But that means that everyone who is looking at the paper and making use of the paper, are using wrong information.  There are instances when measurements are accidentally incorrectly recorded, known as measurement error.  There is an expectation that numbers are noisy.  But, made up numbers do not have the properties of genuinely collected data. 

There is sampling error which means generating wrong interpretations about the population from the sample.  The different samples can have different averages, along with chance providing very different averages. 

P-value indicates the potential randomness of getting a result if the hypothesis was not true.  It does not indicate if the result is true or important.  Statistical significance is given a p-value of 0.05, which is an arbitrary number.  Significance does not indicate a worthy result.  Scientists can also p-hack.  They can run a plethora of tests until they find a test that is statistically significant.  Alternatively retroactively come up with a hypothesis after they find a result they approve of.   Both versions of p-hacking invalidates the p-value as they create methods of getting results through random chance.  Running many tests increases the likelihood of getting a significant result by random chance.  Without sharing the results that were not significant, leads to people being convinced of fake results.  More opportunities means more chances for false-positive results.  P-hacking is a way to make noise appear valuable. 

 

How To Improve Science?

What is measured gets focused on.  Creating conditions that make the metric meaningless, which overrides genuine scientific progress.  Removing arbitrary measures is not necessarily going to resolve bad research practices, for that might introduce other sources of subjectivity. 

Pre-registration enables researchers to be accountable to what they are planning to do.  If a paper has the condition of being published no matter the results, as long as they maintain the pre-registration plan, then that eliminates many incentives for bias and fraud. 

 

Caveats?

The listed problems of science are common in life.  What the author does is reference the problems with scientists as their source.  This book is critical of how science operates, for by knowing where science can go wrong, can science be corrected.

The author references the lack of publications on replication and null results from which no discoveries are made.  Both types are needed in science, but they can also be corrupted.


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•How has science been corrupted?  
•How to improve science? 
•What are the sources of bias in science?
•What are the consequences of inappropriate science?
•Is science a collaborative effort?
•Should scientists be trusted? 
•What perverse incentives effect scientists?
•What are the consequences of perverse incentives?
•What is the effect of replication on science?
•What is the replication crisis? 
•What is the publication bias?
•What research is favored and unfavored to be published?
•What does the ideal of science effect the practice of science?
•What is the purpose of science?
•How do scientists get hired and promoted? 
•What effect does hype have on science?
•How can citation count be exploited?
•What is peer review and how can peer review be exploited? 
•What is reproducibility and are papers reproducible? 
•How does a paper become retracted? 
•How can wrong results be found without fraud?
•What are the ways in which scientists commit research fraud?
•What is the sampling error?
•What is the p-value and what is p-hacking?
•What is pre-registration? 
•What is the pace of scientific progress? 
•What is the Standford Prison Experiment?
•What was the outcome of the Reinhart and Rogoff paper which was about GDP and debt? 
•How much of an effect can a single gene on human traits? 
•Is there a difference between conclusions presented in a research paper or in a book?
•How did the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers incentivize contractors after the California wildfires on 2017? 
•What is the cross-species leap type of hype? 
•How does science get funded and how does that effect publication? 

Book Details
Publisher:               Metropolitan Books [Henry Holt and Company]
Edition ISBN:         9781250222688
Pages to read:          236
Publication:             2020
1st Edition:              2020
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    5
Content          5
Overall          5






Friday, December 15, 2023

Review of The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World by David Deutsch

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (03/30/2024)
Intriguing Connections = 1) What Makes Science A Science?, 2) The Evolution of Evolution


Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“But, in reality, scientific theories are not ‘derived’ from anything.  We do not read them in nature, nor does nature write them into us.  They are guesses – bold conjectures.  Human minds create them by rearranging, combining, altering and adding to existing ideas with the intention of improving upon them.  We do not begin with ‘white paper’ at birth, but with inborn expectations and intentions and an innate ability to improve upon them using thought and experience.  Experience is indeed essential to science, but its role is different from that supposed by empiricism.  It is not the source from which theories are derived.  Its main use is to choose between theories that have already been guessed.  That is what ‘learning from experience’ is.” – David Deutsch, Chapter 1: The Reach of Explanations, Page 12

“The better we come to understand phenomena remote from our everyday experience, the longer those chains of interpretation become, and every additional link necessitates more theory.  A single unexpected or misunderstood phenomenon anywhere in the chain can, and often does, render the resulting sensory experience arbitrarily misleading.  Yet, over time, the conclusions that science has drawn have become ever truer to reality.  Its quest for good explanations corrects the errors, allows for the biases and misleading perspectives, and fills in the gaps.” – David Deutsch, Chapter 2: Closer to Reality, Page 44

“It is inevitable that we face problems, but no particular problem is inevitable.  We survive, and thrive, by solving each problem as it comes up.  And, since the human ability to transform nature is limited only by the laws of physics, none of the endless stream of problems will ever constitute an impassable barrier.  So a complementary and equally important truth about people and the physical world is that problems are soluble.” – David Deutsch, Chapter 3: The Spark, Page 67


Review

Is This An Overview?

Progress depends on explanations.  On good explanations.  Explanations are claims about what something is and how that something behaves.  Problems are a conflict within the explanation, with problems resolved by a good explanation that resolves the conflict within them.  Problems fail to be resolved when they rely on bad explanations.  Problems are inevitable but are soluble with good explanations. 

Problems come for various sources such as communication which can create a problem with misinterpretation, and physical reality can create a problem for survival.  The various sources create potentially infinite problems.  As the potential problems are infinite, they require infinite progress to resolve them.  Resolving some or many problems, still leaves an infinite of problems.  Making progress always at the beginning of infinity.  Progress has no bounds, as there will always be an infinite more to accomplish.   

Explanations are an act of creativity.  Scientific theories start as guesses that are error corrected and improved upon.  Theories are not derived from anything, not even from experiences.  But experiences shape which theories survive.  Testable predictions are not enough in science, for predictions do not self-explain how something works.  Understanding how something works requires an explanation.  Explanations themselves are not enough for a variety of claims can be made to explain testable evidence.  A fundamental flaw of bad explanations is that they drastically vary their claims without changing the predictions.

 

What Are The Limits To Empiricism?

Empiricism has limits about what is not experienced.  Much of reality cannot be experienced.  Predictions about what has not been experienced, and are based on how they are.  The problem is that the future is not like the past.  Logical deductions based on experiences does not explain anything other than what has been experienced.    

Experiences are based on the senses.  The senses might not be deceptive, but the interpretations derived from the senses can be.  Making them part of the explanation paradigm for the Interpretations are fallible, and therefore can be improved through criticism and testing.  Empiricism is flawed because it requires pre-existing knowledge to know what to observe and how to interpret the information.

 

Does Science Need An Authority?

Science needing authority is a misconception derived from a need for certainly.  A bias called justificationism.  This leads to trying to prevent ideas from changing.

Static societies remove the source of ideas which is creativity.  They generate institutions that prevent people from coming up with new ideas.

Alternatively there is fallibilism which goes against authoritative sources of knowledge.  In this view, people create knowledge through better understanding of what is and expecting the ideas to be challenged and improved.  That the ideas will change.  Knowledge does not have an authority to rely on, it comes from any source.  The Enlightenment created a tradition of criticism. 

 

What Makes A Good Explanation?

Testability nor prediction is the purpose of science because appearances are not self-explanatory.  If appearances contained self-evident explanations, there would be no need for science.  Testable predictions do not explain how something works.  That requires an explanation, which are claims about reality for the workings of the appearance. 

Bad explanations, even with testable predictions, are unscientific.  Many theories are rejected without experimentation because they are bad explanations.  Removing a faulty theory is not enough, for a better explanation is needed.  Good explanations are hard to vary without being tested.  Predictions are made from good explanations, while prophecy are claims about the unknowable.

Claims have become more distant from everyday experiences, which makes misinterpretation more likely.  Science becomes better even with the misinterpretations, as science can error-correct the interpretations and fill in data gaps.  Misinterpretations can come from communication, as the same words can have different meanings for the recipient and communicator, requiring guesswork which is subject to error correction. 

Knowledge that has become common is background knowledge, rules of thumb.  They appear to be explanationless predictions, but there are always explanations for them. 

 

How Does Biology Effect Knowledge?

Biological knowledge is non-explanatory which makes it have limited reach and depend on random mutations.  Explanatory human knowledge has unlimited reach and are based on conjectures that are constructed intentionally for a purpose.

Evolution has created many defects in the biological species.  Evolution can make beneficial and harmful changes to biology.  Defects which are in conflict with a designer. 

 

What Is A Better Explanation For Earth’s Status?

Earth is sometimes portrayed as a space ship that provides all that humans needs to sustain themselves.  That humans are squandering what the Earth has provided.  That humans are insignificant.  The problem with this view is that most of the universe is cold, dark, and empty which makes Earth remarkably untypical. 

Much of Earth’s environment leads to death for humans rather than a life-supporting system made for humans.  It takes human ingenuity to designing technology to enable them to live in the life threatening system.  Extinctions of the past occurred because the beings were living the lifestyles they evolved to rather than adept to changing conditions.  Nature did provide raw materials for survival, but it took knowledge to make use of the materials to enable people to survive and thrive.  Evolution did not provide knowledge on how to transform the materials.  It is explanatory knowledge that gives people power to transform nature.  It takes the right knowledge to accommodate people no matter the environment, whether space ship or ruined biosphere.  Civilizations of the past were destroyed for lack of knowledge on how to resolve their problem. 

 

Caveats?

An explanation is needed to understand how something works, but the logic of what makes a good and bad explanation needs a better explanation, as they can appear contradictory.  Most chapters provide an example of a bad explanation, the errors contained in the explanation, how to correct the explanation, and a better explanation.  Taking the reader through the process of obtaining better explanations.  The examples are diverse, with their quality depending on the readers understanding and interest in the topic. 

 


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What is an explanation?  What makes an explanation good or bad? 
•What is a problem?
•What is the beginning of infinity?
•What is empiricism? 
•What are the limits to experiences? 
•What is inductivism? 
•Does science need an authority?
•What are static societies? 
•What is fallibilism? 
•What is the purpose of science?  What is not the purpose of science? 
•What are rules of thumb?
•What is biological knowledge? 
•What effect does evolution has? 
•What is instrumentalism?
•What is relativism? 
•What is creationism? 
•How do explanations become universal? 
•How much has AI improved science Turning’s era? 
•What is the Infinity Hotel? 
•How do memes effect behavior? 
•What kind of political system is needed? 
•Is there a difference between math and physics? 
•How are explanations communicated? 
•Is Earth like a space ship given the claim Space Ship Earth? 
•What were the Enlightenment movements?

Book Details
Edition:                  First American edition
Publisher:               Viking [Penguin Group]
Edition ISBN:         9781101549827
Pages to read:          403
Publication:             2011
1st Edition:              2011
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    4
Content          4
Overall          4