Thursday, April 25, 2024

Review of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock, and Dan Gardner

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (06/29/2024)


Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“Every day, the news media deliver forecasts without reporting, or even asking, how good the forecasters who made the forecasts really are.  Every day, corporations and governments pay for forecasts that may be prescient or worthless or something in between.  And every day, all of us – leaders of nations, corporate executives, investors, and voters – make critical decisions on the basis of forecasts whose quality is unknown.” – Philip E. Tetlock, and Dan Gardner, Chapter 1: An Optimistic Skeptic, Page 10

“Unpack the question into components.  Distinguish as sharply as you can between the known and unknown and leave no assumptions unscrutinized.  Adopt the outside view and put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays its uniqueness and treats it as a special case of a wider class of phenomena.  Then adopt the inside view that plays up the uniqueness of the problem.  Also explore the similarities and differences between your views and those of others – and pay special attention to prediction markets and other methods of extracting wisdom from crowds.  Synthesize all these different views into a single vision as acute as that of a dragonfly.  Finally, express your judgement as precisely as you can, using a finely grained scale of probability.” – Philip E. Tetlock, and Dan Gardner, Chapter 7: Supernewsjunkies?, Page 141

“On the one hand, we warned, groupthink is a danger.  Be cooperative but not deferential.  Consensus is not always good; disagreement not always bad.  If you do happen to agree, don’t take that agreement – in itself – as proof that you are right.  Never stop doubting.  Pointed questions are as essential to a team as vitamins are to a human body.  |  On the other hand, the opposite of groupthink - rancor and dysfunction – is also a danger.  Team members must disagree without being disagreeable, we advised.” – Philip E. Tetlock, and Dan Gardner, Chapter 9: Superteams, Page 184


Review

Is This An Overview?

Forecasting is a skill that everyone uses everyday to predict the effects of potential changes.  Like any skill, forecasting can be improved.  Experts are often sought out for decisions and event interpretations, to forecast what will come about.  Although many provided forecasts appear valuable, their quality is often undetermined.  The public tends to favor those who make the future appear more certain, even though their overconfidence is a source of lower quality forecasts.  On average, experts can provide a better narrative of events, but their forecasts are as good as random guesses. 

Part of the reason for the poor performance of forecasts is that reality is complex and dynamic, making predictions difficult.  Society might have more knowledge and computational power, but less confidence in predictability.  There might be limits on predictability, but people can become better at making forecasts.  To find out how people can make better forecasts, and methods to avoid, many diverse people participated in a forecasting research project. 

What made some people better at making forecasts, what made people superforecasters, was based on how they thought about information, how they used information.  Not intelligence, not ideology, not numeracy skills.  The forecasters were doubtful of their claims, and sought to improve them.  Complex problems which seemed impossible to forecast, were reconsidered through a variety of questions seeking to find ways for the event to occur, or not occur.  They looked for the base rate, a general probability of an event happening before going to the unique case.  Anchoring their views to the outside view, rather than the inside view.  They seek to improve their own forecasts by looking for what others think about the event, they look for alternative forecasts.  They adapt to new information, update their forecasts to new information, and try to not underreact or overreact to the information. 

These methods of thinking, these guidelines might improve decision making, but better to change guidelines than make a terrible forecast.  People can become better at forecasting, but teams have better results than an individual superforecaster, as each member can help others to refine ideas, and no individual can do everything.  But teams take effort to make them productive, and can create processes that exacerbate bad decisions.

 

How To Get Better At Forecasting?

To become better at forecasts, people need to practice.  There is a lot of tacit knowledge that cannot be learned through how others describe forecasting.  Feedback is needed to train in any skill, including forecasting.  But the feedback to forecasts, usually lack quality.  They do not provide immediate feedback nor provide clear results.  Without appropriate feedback, people can become overconfident in their forecasts.  People can gain an illusion of control from seemingly favorable random outcomes.  Judging forecasts would depend on running many forecasts, such as in weather.  But there are forecasts that cannot be rerun, such as history.  Need to run experiments to verify claims. 

The language around what people mean by possibilities need to be more specific rather than ambiguous.  People can mean drastically different possibilities, which can create a dangerous misunderstanding. Teams can use a chart to numerically define possibility claims, to reduce confusion.  Numbers are an opinion, but can be used to reduce confusion.  Forecasts also need timelines.  Without timelines, forecasts become perpetually in dispute at what they meant. 

 

Caveats?

Forecasting on problems will always have uncertainty.  As referenced in the book, no matter the quality of the better decision making, there will be uncertainty and wrong decisions.  The process of decision making matters more than the outcome, as there will be more opportunities for better decisions with a better decision making process than a randomly favorable outcome under a worse decision making process. 


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What is forecasting?
•Who are superforecasters?
•How to know which forecasts are quality forecasts?
•How does uncertainty effect forecasts?
•What is Laplace’s demon? 
•How does ideology effect forecasts?
•Is intelligence needed for quality forecasts?
•Is math needed?  How to use math in forecasts?
•What is the base rate?
•How do teams compare to individual forecasters?
•How to Fermi-tize a question?
•How to be part of a team?
•What is groupthink? 
•How to update to new information? 
•What is Bayesian Theorem? 
•What do consumers/public want of forecasts? 
•How did doubt, and the absence of doubt effect medicine?
•What is the illusion of control?
•How should a leader make decisions? 
•What is regression to the mean?
•Who are the foxes and hedgehogs? 
•How are confidence and competence correlated? 
•What is the dilution effect? 
•What is the difference between a fixed mindset and a growth mindset? 
•What is perpetual beta?
•What was the quality of the forecast that was sent to the central bank during in November 2010?
•What happened to the CIA possibility chart?  
•How can an economic crisis be predicted? 
•What happened at the Bay of Pigs invasion? 
•Did decision did Seydlitz make?  What was the outcome?
•What is Auftragstaktik? 
•How have military decisions changed? 

Book Details
Publisher:               Crown Publishers [Penguin Random House]
Edition ISBN:         9780804136709
Pages to read:          253
Publication:             2015
1st Edition:              2015
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    5
Content          5
Overall          5






Friday, April 12, 2024

Review of The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World by Iain McGilchrist

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Genre = Psychology
Intriguing Connections = 1) Why Do People Think Differently?, 2) To Cooperate Or To Defect?

Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“Understanding hemisphere difference offers a perspective on the structure of mind which is not available merely by introspection.  If in everyday life we were aware of the discrepancies in the view, or ‘take’, on the world each hemisphere offers, it would render the immediate business of survival impracticable.  For this reason, nature has taken care that these discrepancies should not be part of our everyday awareness.  Even on sustained introspection, we can be only indirectly aware of the fact that reality is constructed from two incompatible world views.  This fact becomes manifest, however, in the disputes of philosophers and theologians over the ages about the very nature of reality.” – Iain McGilchrist, Preface to the New Expanded Edition, Page 28

“The kind of attention we bring to bear on the world changes the nature of the world we attend to, the very nature of the world in which those “functions” would be carried out, and in which those “things” would exist.  Attention changes what kind of a thing comes into being for us: in that way it changes the world.” – Iain McGilchrist, Chapter 1: Asymmetry and the brain, Page 69

“There is even some evidence that we identify projectively with people with whom we share a common purpose – when we are co-operating in a task, for example – to such a degree that we seem to merge identity with them.  In ingeniously designed experiments where two participants are sitting next to one another, sharing a combined task, but with functionally independent roles, the two individuals appear spontaneously to function as one agent with a unified action plan.” – Iain McGilchrist, Chapter, Page 350

Review

Is This An Overview?

The brain has hemispheres that are involved in every task.  But, the way in which the hemispheres are involved are different.  Their roles are different.  They deal with the same information in different ways.  The different roles of the hemispheres enable the brain to function effectively, but the differences also provide different experiences of reality which creates conflict.  They have different values and priorities.  They function well when cooperating, but their competition with each other creates friction.  Problems occur when giving prominence to a hemisphere over another.  The problems occurring due to the conflict are felt indirectly, through culture.  Social problems develop through lack of tolerance at other methods of thinking, as they appear incompatible, with the other being wrong.

 

Caveats?

This book contains a myriad of different cultural and philosophical references.  Prior knowledge of the references would enable the reader to better understand the book.  References that can be interpreted to favor the primary claims about the hemispheric differences. 


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•How does the brain use the hemispheres?
•How does each hemisphere experience reality?
•What enables effective functioning of the brain?
•What does each hemisphere process information?
•How do the hemispheres compete?
•What happens when a hemisphere expands? 
•How does the hemispheric competition effect society?
•Can the hemispheric differences be understood through introspection? 
•What has become of empathy?
•Why is there a need to teach people how to read faces? 
•How did evolution effect the brain? 
•What effect does attention have on experience? 
•What is the usual hemisphere division?  Why is it usual? 
•Are the hemispheres symmetrical? 
•How do hemispheres effect language? 
•How does language function?
•How to think about knowledge? 
•How does music effect people? 
•How does the left hemisphere think about responsibility and power? 
•What happens to people when they share a common purpose? 
•How does isolation effect people? 
•How do mainstream claims about what the hemispheres do compare to the author’s findings? 


Book Details
Edition:                  New Expanded Edition
Publisher:               Yale University Press
Edition ISBN:         9780300247459
Pages to read:          622
Publication:             2019
1st Edition:              2009
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    2
Content          2
Overall          2






Monday, April 8, 2024

Review of Circe by Madeline Miller

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Book Club Event = Book List (11/02/2024)
Intriguing Connections = 1) What Is The Power Of Belief Systems?



Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“I remembered how my father had once told me that on earth there were men called astronomers whose task it was to keep track of his rising and setting.  They were held in highest esteem among mortals, kept in palaces as counselors of kings, but sometimes my father lingered over one thing or another and threw their calculations into despair.  Then those astronomers were hauled before the kings they served and killed as frauds.  My father had smiled when he told me.  It was what they deserved, he said.  Helios the Sun was bound to no will but his own, and none might say what he would do.” – Madeline Miller, Chapter One, Page 15

“Let me say what sorcery is not: it is not divine power, which comes with a thought and a blink.  It must be made and worked, planned and searched out, dug up, dried, chopped and ground, cooked, spoken over, and sung.  Even after that, it can fail, as gods do not.  If my herbs are not fresh enough, if my attention falters, if my will is weak, the draughts go stale and rancid in my hands.” – Madeline Miller, Chapter Seven, Page 75

“Among the gods there are a few who have the gift of prophecy, the ability to peer into the murk and glimpse what fates will come.  Not everything may be foreseen.  Most gods and mortals have lives that are tied to nothing; they tangle and wend now here, now there, according to no set plan.  But then there are those who wear their destinies like nooses, whose lives run straight as planks, however they try to twist.  It is these that our prophets may see.” – Madeline Miller, Chapter Ten, Page 116


Review

Is This An Overview?

The immortals do not fear death, but they do fear power.  Among the immortals is a hierarchy defined by power, with Circe wielding none.  Sibling or not, many gods find ways to demean Circe.  Unlike most gods, Circe is interested in connecting to humans.  For such a connection, Circe discovered the power of witchcraft.  Power that Circe turned against a sibling as a method of retaliation.  Although other gods misused their power, Circe is used as a bargaining tool for those with more power and sent to exile. 

An exile that enables Circe to refine the powers of witchcraft.  The exile has its moments of loneliness, but also company.  Circe might not be able to leave the island, but many come to Circe.  From bandits, to heroes, to gods.  Experiences that Circe learns from.  Learns to become someone with power.  Learns that those who need help, might not be noble after help is received.  Learns how to challenge the more powerful gods.  Experiences that Circe will need to protect Circe’s child from a powerful god who wants to kill the child. 

                     

Caveats?

This is a retelling of popular Greco-Roman myths.  Those who know the myths can have different reactions to this story.  Knowledge of the myths would enable a reader to better understand the politics and social structure of the gods.  But there can also be dissidence between what the reader expects of the myths, and the represented contrast.

 


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What are nymphs?
•What was Helios’s presumed natural order? 
•How did Helios treat astronomers?
•What do gods love? 
•What did the gods think of mortals? 
•What did Circe think of humans? 
•Who is Circe? 
•What did Circe’s relatives think of Circe? 
•How can Circe’s childhood be described? 
•Why did Circe take Aeëtes?
•What did Prometheus do and what was the outcome?
•What did Circe think of Prometheus?  
•How does Titans and Olympians treat each other? 
•What is a Fury? 
•Can gods be hurt? 
•Who is Daedalus? 
•What is the great chain of fear?
•How did Glaucos react to Circe?
•What became of Glaucos? 
•What happened to Glaucos when Glaucos gained power?
•Who is Tethys and what did Circe ask of Tethys?
•How did Circe discover witchcraft? 
•How did Circe use power initially?  How did Circe’s use of power change? 
•Why is Scylla?  What does Scylla become? 
•How is witchcraft revealed to the gods? 
•Who are the original witches and magicians? 
•How does sorcery/witchcraft work? 
•What is Circe’s specialty in witchcraft? 
•What is Circe’s punishment for witchcraft? 
•How did Circe react to being on the island of Aiaia? 
•Who does Circe summon?
•Who is Hermes?
•How did Cicre and Hermes treat each other? 
•Who can enter and leave the island of Aiaia? 
•Who provides better offerings to the gods? 
•What is moly? 
•What happened to Pasiphaë? 
•How did the minotaur came to be? 
•What does Pasiphaë have on Daedalus?
•What did Daedalus give to Circe? 
•How do gods prove their worth? 
•How do mortals gain fame? 
•What are children worth? 
•What happened to Ariadne? 
•Who is Medea and what happened to Medea?
•What did Jason do? 
•How does Circe feel being on the island of Aiaia?  How does Circe deal with the loneliness and company? 
•Why do gods send their daughters to Aiaia?
•How did Odysseus and Circe treat each other?
•How did Athena treat Odysseus? 
•What happened during the Trojan War?
•How did Apollo share the prophecy? 
•Who did not want Circe child born? 
•How did Circe deal with Athena when Telegonus was born? 
•What stories did Circe tell Telegonus of Odysseus? 
•What does Telegonus want to do?
•How does Circe find a way to protect Telegonus and from what?
•Who is the Great lord of the deep? 
•What is Trygon’s power?
•What happened when Odysseus returned to Ithica?
•Why does Telemachus and Penelope go to Aiaia?
•What is the option Athena gives to Telemachus?  What is the outcome of the offer? 
•How does Circe end the exile? 
•What was the outcome of the confrontation between Circe and Scylla after exile’s end?
•What choice does Circe make after exile? 


Book Details
Edition:                   First ebook edition
Publisher:               Little, Brown and Company [Hachette Book Group]
Edition ISBN:         9780316556330
Pages to read:          335
Publication:             2020
1st Edition:              2018
Format:                    eBook 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    5
Content          5
Overall          5






Thursday, April 4, 2024

Review of Japan Unbound: A Volatile Nation's Quest for Pride and Purpose by John Nathan

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Intriguing Connections = 1) Get To Know The Peoples Of The World (Japan), 


Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“The challenge was not only understanding European political and social institutions and the worldviews they reflected, but adapting them to fit the contours of Japanese society.  Establishing an authentic sense of national self and purpose in the modern world required the merging of two disparate and often irreconcilable cultures, one native, inherent, grounded in history, the other founded on concepts such as individualism and intractably foreign.  This exercise in cultural synthesis continues to tax and trouble the Japanese imagination.” – John Nathan, Introduction, Page 8

“The pressure was intense, but diligence and high achievement paid off: graduation from a preferred college guaranteed a fast-track job in government or industry, and lifetime employment.  School was a ticket to a successful life; teachers were trusted and respected.  |  But by the early 1980s, as the postcollege job market constricted, students began to show signs of stress.” – John Nathan, Chapter 1: Monsters in the House: Japan’s Bewildered Children, Page 32

“The fact remained, in a society that valorized individualism, that many people were not content to work for others: alienation, and the consequent loss of productivity, were inchoate in the moment of hiring.  The Japanese never resented sacrificing individuality in the interest of the group; on the contrary, discovering one’s place in a vertically integrated group, belonging harmoniously, was the basis for gratification and, beyond that, self-certainty.” – John Nathan, Chapter 3: The Culture of Arithmetic, Pages 72-73


Review

Is This An Overview?

Japan has been influenced by various cultures.  Cultures with different values, which challenged their fusion.  Tension formed between perceived unique traditional values, and the alternative values that are often foreign.  Threatening Japanese identity, their sense of self.  A cultural change that effects how people live.  Changing how people behave, find meaning, and find belonging within school, family, work, society, and politics. 

 

A society in which people tend to be willing to defer to the community.  People found belonging being part of the community, but communities are becoming isolating experiences.  The changing family structure and the traumatic school experiences, prevent people from building friendships and developing communication skills.  School and working hard used to provide people with an appropriate work and rewards, but the state of the economy led to a loss of jobs, a lack of potential reward to look forward to.  Various people are seeking differing ways to resolve the economic and social challenges facing Japan.

 

Caveats?

This book provides an introduction to the changing society in the late 20th century.  For a deeper political, cultural, and historic understanding of Japan would require more research.  


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•How has Japanese culture been influenced by other cultures?
•How is Japanese identity threatened?
•What are Japanese values?
•What did people expect from their work?
•How does Japan use language?
•How unique is Japan?
•Can Japanese culture be understood by outsiders? 
•What is the trend in juvenile crime? 
•What did people expect from school?
•What is happening inside the classrooms? 
•How are teachers effected by their jobs? 
•What is the extended family?
•How did people get married? 
•What do the Japanese think of entrepreneurs? 
•What kind of information did the Japanese want in textbooks?
•Who is Yasuo Tanaka?
•Who is Shintaro Ishihara?


Book Details
Publisher:               Houghton Mifflin Company
Edition ISBN:         0618138943
Pages to read:          253
Publication:             2004
1st Edition:              2004
Format:                    Hardcover 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    3
Content          3
Overall          2