Thursday, September 25, 2025

Review of The Confidence Trap: A History of Democracy in Crisis from World War I to the Present by David Runciman

This book review was written by Eugene Kernes   

Book can be found in: 
Genre = Politics
Book Club Event = Book List (12/20/2025)
Intriguing Connections = 1) To Cooperate Or To Defect?, 2) Why Do People Think Differently?


Watch Short Review

Excerpts

“The factors that make democracy work successfully over time – the flexibility, the variety, the responsiveness of democratic societies – are the same factors that cause democracies to go wrong.  They produce impulsiveness, and short-termism, and historical myopia.  Successful democracies have blind spots, which cause them to drift into disaster.  You cannot have the good of democratic progress without the bad of democratic drift.” – David Runciman, Preface, Page XV

 

“Newspaper hysteria was only part of the general problem: crisis might be good for a democracy, but democracies are not good at recognizing crises.  They overreact; they underreact; they lack a sense of proportion.  That is why it was so hard to know what sort of crisis would enable a democracy to learn its lesson.  If the crisis turned out to be so bad that no one could doubt it was real, then there was always a risk that it would end in disaster.  If it did not end in disaster, then there was always a risk that it would be filed along with the other overblown crises of democratic life as a false alarm.  And even the real crises – the ones no one could doubt – were hard to learn from.  If democracy doesn’t survive, you’ve learned your lesson, but at an unacceptable cost.  If democracy does survive, then you may learn the lesson that democracy can survive any crisis.  Instead of making you wise, recovering from your mistakes can make you reckless.” – David Runciman, Introduction: Tocqueville: Democracy and Crisis, Page 25

 

“In a crisis, elections can be a godsend or a curse.  They are a godsend if they provide a chance to ditch the people responsible for the mess.  They are a curse if they make it impossible for anyone to take the tough decisions needed to get out of the mess for fear of being turfed out by the voters.” – David Runciman, Chapter 7: 2008: Back to the Future, Page 278

 

Review

Is This An Overview?

Different forms of government have their advantages and disadvantages.  An advantage of autocracies and aristocracies is that they can respond to a crisis quicky and decisively with long-term agendas.  The disadvantage is that once those decisions have been made, the people are stuck with those decisions as the leaders lack adaptation methods.  A disadvantage of democracies is that they have difficulty coordinating action on short-term notice.  The advantage is that democracies are constantly experimenting, finding different ways to overcome a challenge. 

 

Democracies are better equipped to overcome long-term problems due to methods of adaptation, but being able to adapt does not make democracies any wiser than before.  Overcoming a crisis through adaptation can teach the wrong lesson, that the democracy can overcome any crisis.  Successfully overcoming a crisis makes democracies complacent to problems, and behave recklessly for the assumption is that problems could be overcome.  Recklessness, complacency, failure to take action to correct a problem, creates crises.  This is democracy’s confidence trap.  For confidence in being able to overcome a crisis, creates the crisis.  While past crises have been overcome, that does not mean knowing that adaptation is possible to a future challenge. 

 

Possibility of adaptation comes from elections.  Elected officials need to change their minds to stay in power, unlike unelected officials who are afraid of public opinion as they seek to control public opinion.  Elections are a tool that can be used as an opportunity to remove those who are making mistakes and change the ideas being used.  But elections can also prevent officials from making tough decisions for fear of how the voters will respond.  Officials are quick to change decisions, which develops a myopic political situation.  The future of democracy is evanescent, for no democratic behavior is representative of what the democracy will do in the future.

 

Caveats?

Although various democracies are represented, as the author acknowledged, the focus is on the democracy of United States of America. 

 

The author reflects on various commentators of democracy.  The interpretations often lack background information about the content of the claims, and different people can have different interpretations of the claims than those provided by the author.  


Questions to Consider while Reading the Book

•What is the raison d’etre of the book?  For what purpose did the author write the book?  Why do people read this book?
•What are some limitations of the book?
•To whom would you suggest this book?
•What is the confidence trap?
•What are the advantages and disadvantages of democracy?
•What is democratic complacency?
•What did Tocqueville think of American politics?
•What are the criticisms of democracy?  
•How do the news effect democracy? 
•What do democracies think of war?
•What crisis did democracy face during 1918?
•What did the Bolsheviks think of American democracy?
•What crisis did democracy face during 1933?
•What crisis did democracy face during 1947?
•What crisis did democracy face during 1974?
•What crisis did democracy face during 1989?
•What is The End Of History?
•Is Japan a democracy? 
•What crisis did democracy face during 2008?

Book Details
Publisher:               Princeton University Press
Edition ISBN:         9780691148687
Pages to read:          339
Publication:             2013
1st Edition:              2013
Format:                    Hardcover 

Ratings out of 5:
Readability    5
Content          5
Overall          5